• Importance of
  Submarines

• Threats

• Submarines' Potential
  in the 21st Century

• 2008 Congressional
  Information Package

THE EMERGING CHINESE UNDERSEA THREAT

Because of their stealth, submarines are one of the most versatile weapons platforms in the world. They play significant roles in a myriad of operations, including our global war on terrorism.

One area where their role is growing increasingly more important is in the Pacific Rim, where China is seeking to challenge the U.S. naval supremacy in the Pacific and India seas, and to secure its own ability to protect its shipping lanes from the Middle East to Southern China. Last November, a nuclear-powered Chinese Navy submarine patrolled past Guam and through Japanese territorial waters without announcing itself, a violation of international law. China later apologized to Japan.

The following headlines and quotes from recent news coverage helps to lay out the current environment and the mounting concern regarding China’s intent: Please see the accompanying links to publications for full text of articles (Note: these links are currently in production).

THE GROWING CHINESE SUBMARINE FORCE AND NAVAL PRESENCE ...

“China … is looking not only to build a blue-water navy to control the sea lanes, but also to develop undersea mines and missile capabilities to deter the potential disruption of its energy supplies from potential threats, including the U.S. Navy, especially in the case of the conflict with Taiwan.”

“According to military analysts, China is rapidly expanding its submarine force to about 85 by 2010, about one-third more than today. ‘They want to become the dominant power in the western Pacific, to displace the United States, to kick us back to Hawaii or beyond,’ said Richard Fisher Jr., who studies Chinese naval strengths and strategies for the International Assessment and Strategy Center, a Washington research institute.”

“China will have a naval fleet equal in size to the U.S. Navy fleet by 2015, and will have twice as many submarines by 2010, according to the American Shipbuilding Association (ASA). Currently there are 289 ships and submarines in the U.S. fleet.”

“China is acquiring submarines ‘to patrol the littorals, blockade the Taiwan Strait, and stalk (U.S.) aircraft carriers,’ say two researchers, Lyle Goldstein and Bill Murray, at the Naval War College in Rhode Island. China, which has 50 submarines in two older classes, began expanding 10 years ago, when it bought four Russian ‘Kilo’ submarines, then ordered eight more in 2002 for delivery starting in 2005. The Chinese are producing the Song-class of attack boats armed with cruise missiles. Training has intensified throughout the fleet.”

“Local geography strongly favors submarines. Western and Taiwanese experts note that the uneven depths, high levels of background noise, strong currents and shifting thermal layers of the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea make it difficult to detect even old, obsolete submarines. In these waters, crucial sensors, including advanced ‘passive sonar’ are much less effective. ‘Submarines are very difficult to deal with in these East Asian waters,’ says Sam Bateman, a former Australian Navy officer and an adviser to the Maritime Security Program at Singapore’s Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. ‘These are not the deep, dark, silent waters of the North Atlantic. The performance of passive sonar is highly degraded in these East Asian conditions.’”

“China’s military has launched the first of a new class of ballistic missile submarines in what defense officials view as a major step forward in Beijing’s strategic weapons programs. The new 094-class submarines was launched in late July and when fully operational in the next year or two will be the first submarine to carry the underwater-launched version of China’s new DF-31 missile, according to defense officials. …Building submarines is a top priority of the Chinese, and the Type 094 will be ‘China’s first truly intercontinental strategic nuclear delivery system.’”

"Although the U.S. Navy is the uncontested king of the high seas, a new and ominous threat is growing in the world's critical coastal waters and the maritime choke points: quiet, long-endurance submarines, some armed with lethal torpedoes and sea-skimming cruise missiles.

”The growing numbers and increasing sophistication of submarines offer foes a deadly weapon with which to neutralize the United States’ overwhelming combat power and deny it access to critical shipping lanes and seaports. Such a submarine in the wrong hands could wait undetected for a target – an American aircraft carrier, an amphibious ship packed with Marines, even a cruise ship jammed with holiday makers.”

THE STRATEGIC THREAT ...

“It is in the Taiwan Strait that Chinese and U.S. submarines would most likely clash if China seeks to blockade or invade Taiwan, the island over which it claims sovereignty but whose people prefer to remain separate. American submarines would go into action because Taiwan lacks sufficient anti-submarine weapons to break a blockade or stop an invasion. U.S. policy is to help defend Taiwan from an unprovoked assault by China.”

“China’s undersea power could greatly increase the risk to the U.S. if it decides to intervene in any conflict between the mainland and Taiwan, military analysts say. The newest Chinese submarines, armed with advanced Russian ‘wake-homing’ torpedoes and anti-ship cruise missiles, pose a deadly threat to surface warships including aircraft carriers.”

“Many military analysts believe that the reason for China broadening the operational scope of their surveillance vessels is to collect information about the distribution of currents and water temperatures for use during combat and also the sonar mapping of undersea terrain. They believe that these missions are purely to increase military preparedness with the aim of locking out U.S. aircraft carrier groups based in the Pacific if they attempt to enter the Taiwan Strait in the event of a crisis.”

U.S. RESPONSE ...

“The United States has moved two submarines from Hawaii to Guam and will add a third to base them closer to operating areas. Where 60 percent of U.S. submarines operated in the Atlantic during the Cold War and 40 percent in the Pacific, the Navy is planning to reverse that ratio. Attack submarines whose mission after the Cold War was to launch cruise missiles at land and sea targets and to gather intelligence have been assigned anew the task of fighting other submarines because the best anti-submarine weapon is another submarine.”